Jun 4, 2025
6
mins read
Cut-off anxiety peaks in the eight-to-twelve weeks between the exam and the official answer key. Many blogs offer a single table of numbers. Here you get 3× the data points—nine institute predictions, 24 k crowd-sourced scores, Twitter/X polls, Reddit threads, and subject-wise breakup of both GS & CSAT. The goal: give you crystalline clarity before you switch to Mains or reboot for 2026.
Year | Vacancies | Applicants (m) | Appeared (m) | Gen Cut-Off | % Change YoY |
2020 | 796 | 1.05 | 0.50 | 92.51 | — |
2021 | 712 | 1.09 | 0.52 | 87.54 | –5 % |
2022 | 1 022 | 1.15 | 0.56 | 88.22 | +0.8 % |
2023 | 1 059 | 1.26 | 0.58 | 75.41 | –14.5 % |
2024 | 1 056 | 1.18 | 0.56 | 87.98 | +16.7 % |
2025 | 979 | 1.35 (est.) | 0.61 (est.) | 85–90 | — |
Vacancy & applicant data: UPSC annual reports; 2025 projections from notification & coaching surveys
Table of content
Subject | Questions 2025 | Questions 2024 | Net Difficulty Shift | Observed Avg Accuracy* |
Environment & Ecology | 21 | 14 | ▲ Harder | 46 % |
Polity & Governance | 17 | 13 | ▲ Harder | 55 % |
Economy | 16 | 18 | ▼ Slightly easier | 60 % |
History & Culture | 14 | 10 | ▲ Harder | 48 % |
Geography | 14 | 17 | ▼ Easier | 63 % |
Sci-Tech | 8 | 11 | ▼ Easier | 58 % |
*Accuracy based on 15 227 self-reported sheets on ForumIAS & Vision IAS dashboards.
Key takeaway: The surge in Environment + tricky multi-statement Polity MCQs shaved ≈ 4 marks off otherwise “average” scores.
“CSAT is no longer just qualifying; it’s eliminating.” — Indian Express analysis
CSAT Section | Avg Time/Question | 2024 Accuracy | 2025 Accuracy |
RC (14 passages) | 3 m 20 s | 60 % | 42 % |
Logical Puzzles | 2 m 45 s | 55 % | 40 % |
Quant/DI | 2 m 10 s | 47 % | 52 % |
A ForumIAS poll of 31 k aspirants shows 31 % fear missing CSAT’s 66.67 mark—2 pp above 2023.
Source | Gen | OBC | EWS | SC | ST | Notes |
AptiPlus | 90-95 | 85-90 | 85-90 | 75-80 | 70-75 | Large Kolkata‐base test data |
ForumIAS | 87-92 | 86-91 | 85-90 | 77-82 | 72-77 | 8 k answer uploads |
Drishti IAS | 84-89 | 83-88 | 82-87 | 74-79 | 69-74 | Live Hindi + English panels |
Vajiram & Ravi | 86 ± 4 | — | — | — | — | Webinar; 500 live |
Vision IAS | 79-86 | 78-85 | 78-85 | 70-78 | 65-72 | 15 k result form |
InsightsIAS | 82 | 81 | 78 | 70 | 65 | Vinay Sir vlog |
Next IAS poll | 85.9 | — | — | — | — | 12 k votes |
Plutus IAS | 85-90 | 84-89 | 83-88 | 75-80 | 70-75 | Blog + FB poll |
Twitter @StriveEdgeIAS | 80-85 (Gen poll mode) | — | — | — | — | 2 k votes |
Reddit r/UPSC thread | Crowd median 82-83 | — | — | — | — | 400 comments |
Weighted mean (by historical hit-rate) → 88.1 (Gen).
Category | Very Safe | Likely | Grey Zone | Risk |
General | ≥ 90 | 88-89 | 85-87 | ≤ 84 |
OBC | ≥ 88 | 86-87 | 83-85 | ≤ 82 |
EWS | ≥ 88 | 86-87 | 83-85 | ≤ 82 |
SC | ≥ 80 | 78-79 | 75-77 | ≤ 74 |
ST | ≥ 75 | 73-74 | 70-72 | ≤ 69 |
Milestone | ETA | What to Do |
UPSC Provisional Key | ~Aug 2025 | Cross-verify ambiguous Qs, file objections. |
Final Key & Results | ~Sept 2025 | Confirm GS marks; update preparation. |
Mains Exam | 19 Sept 2025 | Target ~80 days of focused prep. |
Official Cut-Off | Apr 2026 | Validate forecasts, archive for 2026 planning. |
Daily 2-passages rule: 2 RC + 10 quant Qs.
Monthly mock-cum-analysis: Not just marks—log every wrong answer type.
Speed checkpoints: Aim 2m 45s avg on RC; <2m on reasoning.
UPSC 2025 seats (979) break roughly to:
392 Gen, 264 OBC, 98 EWS, 147 SC, 78 ST.
Because qualifiers per category ≈ 3 × seats, the Gen cut-off roughly slices the top 1 200 Gen scores. A ~31 % CSAT fail rate effectively moves that slice ~3 marks left (downward).
# | Question | Answer |
1 | When will UPSC release the official Prelims 2025 cut-off? | The Commission publishes category-wise cut-offs only after the final CSE result—typically 10–11 months post-Prelims (around March–April 2026). |
2 | Why do coaching‐institute predictions differ by 5–10 marks? | Each institute uses its own answer key, sample size, CSAT-pass filter, and statistical model (percentile or 3×-vacancy rule). Small shifts in any of these inputs change the final estimate. |
3 | Does the CSAT score affect my GS cut-off? | Yes—indirectly. If you fail to score 66.67 marks in CSAT, your GS marks aren’t considered at all. A tougher CSAT reduces the pool of candidates, which typically lowers the GS Paper I cut-off. |
4 | How many GS questions can UPSC delete after challenges? | In recent cycles, UPSC has dropped 1–3 questions per paper. Each deletion adds ~0.67 marks to every candidate’s raw GS score. |
5 | What is a “safe score” for General category this year? | Based on nine institute forecasts and crowd data, 90 + in GS Paper I (with CSAT cleared) is considered very safe. Scores 85–89 fall into a grey zone; < 85 is risky. |
6 | Why is the 2025 cut-off expected to be lower than 2024 but higher than 2023? | 2025 saw: (1) a moderately tough GS, (2) a very tough CSAT (which drags cut-offs down), but also (3) fewer vacancies (979 vs 1,056) which push cut-offs up. The net balance lands between the 2023 dip and the 2024 rebound. |
7 | Do reserved-category cut-offs follow a fixed ratio relative to General? | No. They fluctuate independently based on category-wise performance distributions and reservation rules—but historically, OBC/EWS trail General by ~1–3 marks, SC by ~8–10 marks, and ST by ~12–15 marks. |
8 | I scored 87 in GS and cleared CSAT—should I start Mains prep? | Absolutely. Grey-zone candidates (85–89) should begin a “Mains-Lite” schedule—essay outlines, Ethics theory, optional revision—while keeping an eye on consolidated answer-keys. Waiting can cost you 3–4 critical weeks. |
9 | Will fewer vacancies always raise cut-offs? | Not necessarily. Vacancies tighten competition, but cut-offs still depend more on paper difficulty and CSAT pass rates. A brutal paper can offset the vacancy effect, as seen in 2023. |
10 | Is aiming 100 + in GS still relevant after seeing recent cut-offs? | Yes. A 100 + buffer safeguards you against tougher-than-expected papers, question deletions, or scaling anomalies, virtually guaranteeing qualification in most years. |
11 | How accurate are crowd-sourced score calculators? | They’re useful indicators but can be skewed by self-selection (mostly serious aspirants upload scores). Treat them as directional, not definitive. |
12 | What’s the single biggest lesson from Prelims 2025? | Treat CSAT as a core paper, not a formality. Consistent RC and reasoning practice throughout the year is now essential to avoid elimination—even for high scorers in GS. |