Bihar Exit Poll Results 2025: NDA vs Mahagathbandhan
UPSC Prelims
Current affairs
Latest Update
Gajendra Singh Godara
Nov 13, 2025
8
mins read
The 2025 Bihar Assembly elections were held on Nov 6 and Nov 11 in two phases. The main contest was between the incumbent NDA alliance (BJP–JDU) and the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan.
The 2025 Bihar Assembly Election 2025 exit poll became a major talking point. For UPSC aspirants, these exit polls involve Polity (election laws), current affairs (political trends) and media/ethics issues, all relevant for GS papers.
What is an exit poll?
It is a survey of voters immediately after they cast their ballots, asking whom they chose and why.
Agencies select a representative sample of polling stations and voters.
The aggregated responses predict seat counts or vote share.
Exit polls give an early estimate of election outcomes before the official count.
Exit Poll vs Opinion Poll
Opinion polls are conducted before voting (gauging intentions),exit polls are done after voting (reflecting actual votes).
Opinion polls can influence undecided voters, whereas exit polls are published only after polls close to prevent influence. Exit polls are also more regulated in India (Section 126A) than opinion polls.
Key Highlights and Trends
Election Context: Bihar has 243 assembly seats; 122 are needed for a majority.
The BJP–JDU alliance sought to continue its rule, while the RJD-led coalition aimed to take power.
The Jan Suraaj Party (Prashant Kishor) contested a few seats as a minor player.
Turnout and Demographics
Turnout was about 66.9% (a record high for Bihar).
Women voters turned out at a higher rate (~71–72%) than men (~63%).
This gender gap highlights rising political engagement of women and may lead parties to focus on women’s issues.
Analysts noted NDA strength among OBCs, EBCs and SCs, while the Mahagathbandhan retained Yadav–Muslim support.
These patterns reveal which social groups influenced the result. UPSC aspirants can use such turnout and demographic facts in answers on voter participation and social equity.
Pollster | NDA | MGB | JSP | Others |
Axis My India | 121-141 | 98-118 | 0-2 | 1-5 |
Today's Chanakya | 148-172 | 65-89 | - | 3-9 |
Matrize | 147-167 | 70-90 | 0-2 | 2-5 |
P-Marq | 142-162 | 80-98 | 1-4 | 0-3 |
Peoples Pulse | 133-159 | 75-101 | 0-5 | 2-8 |
Bhaskar | 145-160 | 73-91 | - | 5-10 |
People’s Insight | 133-148 | 87-102 | 0-2 | 3-6 |
JVC | 135-150 | 88-103 | - | 3-7 |
Polstrat | 133-148 | 87-102 | - | 3-5 |
Poll Diary | 184-209 | 32-49 | - | 1-5 |
Vote Vibe | 125-145 | 95-115 | 0-2 | 1-3 |
NDA: National Democratic Alliance
MGB: Mahagathbandhan
JSP: Jan Suraaj Party
Others: All other parties
Section 126A
This provision of the Representation of People Act forbids publishing exit poll results from the first voting phase until 30 minutes after the last phase ends.
For Bihar 2025, the ECI banned exit poll releases from Nov 6 morning until Nov 11 evening. Violating this rule can lead to up to 2 years jail or fines.
ECI Rationale
The Election Commission of India explains that this ban ensures no voting phase is influenced by early projections.
It balances freedom of speech with fair polling. Pollsters must wait until all voting is complete before announcing results, safeguarding election integrity.
Enforcement
The ECI instructs Chief Electoral Officers and media outlets to comply strictly.
TV channels and websites must disclose their sampling method and error margins when releasing exit polls after voting ends.
Any leak of exit poll data during voting is treated as an election offense.
Many democracies also restrict exit poll releases.
In the UK, broadcasters conduct exit polls but release them only after polls close (traditionally 10 PM).
France and Germany prohibit publishing exit poll data until all voting ends; for example, French law bans exit poll publication during election weekends.
The USA has no legal ban, but networks voluntarily delay results by time zone.
In some other countries (e.g., Singapore, Indonesia), media also avoid releasing exit polls before voting ends, following similar principles.
Representative Sampling: The sample of voters surveyed should accurately reflect different groups in the real voting population (such as urban/rural, caste, gender, age, region).
Good Survey Questions: Exit polls must use a clear, unbiased, and structured questionnaire to avoid confusion and leading questions.
Transparency: The agency should clearly share its methods, including how it selected the sample, the size, margin of error, and how answers are weighted—this increases trust.
Challenges and Margin of Error: No exit poll is perfect. Unexpected swings, last-minute decisions, postal ballots not covered, or changes in alliances can all affect accuracy.
Regulatory Guidelines: Agencies must follow Election Commission rules so results are fair, ethical, and do not mislead the public.
Q. In the light of recent controversy regarding the use of Electronic Voting Machines(EVM), what are the challenges before the Election Commission of India to ensure the trustworthiness of elections in India? (2018)
Q. To enhance the quality of democracy in India the Election Commission of India has proposed electoral reforms in 2016. What are the suggested reforms and how far are they significant to make democracy successful? (2017)
Frequently asked question (FAQs)
Exit polls are conducted after voters submit their ballots, attempting to forecast an election outcome prior to the official tallying of the votes. In comparison to opinion polls, which seek to determine the electorate's intentions prior to an election, exit polls are indeed likely to be more accurate. Nonetheless, issues regarding sample size, the phrasing of questions, and the timing of the survey can still adversely affect the outcome.
Exit polls are, at the end of the day, estimates that contain a margin of error; thus, they require careful interpretation. This, we believe, will bring value to the answer of a UPSC aspirant. Knowledge of such polls will assist in appreciating the ethical dimension of the media, understanding current issues in the election cycle, and contributing to a more rounded response in democracy, governance and political issues.
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