Jun 4, 2025
6
mins read
Cut-off anxiety peaks in the eight-to-twelve weeks between the exam and the official answer key. Many blogs offer a single table of numbers. Here you get 3× the data points—nine institute predictions, 24 k crowd-sourced scores, Twitter/X polls, Reddit threads, and subject-wise breakup of both GS & CSAT. The goal: give you crystalline clarity before you switch to Mains or reboot for 2026.
Year | Vacancies | Applicants (m) | Appeared (m) | Gen Cut-Off | % Change YoY |
2020 | 796 | 1.05 | 0.50 | 92.51 | — |
2021 | 712 | 1.09 | 0.52 | 87.54 | –5 % |
2022 | 1 022 | 1.15 | 0.56 | 88.22 | +0.8 % |
2023 | 1 059 | 1.26 | 0.58 | 75.41 | –14.5 % |
2024 | 1 056 | 1.18 | 0.56 | 87.98 | +16.7 % |
2025 | 979 | 1.35 (est.) | 0.61 (est.) | 85–90 | — |
Vacancy & applicant data: UPSC annual reports; 2025 projections from notification & coaching surveys
Table of content
Subject | Questions 2025 | Questions 2024 | Net Difficulty Shift | Observed Avg Accuracy* |
Environment & Ecology | 21 | 14 | ▲ Harder | 46 % |
Polity & Governance | 17 | 13 | ▲ Harder | 55 % |
Economy | 16 | 18 | ▼ Slightly easier | 60 % |
History & Culture | 14 | 10 | ▲ Harder | 48 % |
Geography | 14 | 17 | ▼ Easier | 63 % |
Sci-Tech | 8 | 11 | ▼ Easier | 58 % |
*Accuracy based on 15 227 self-reported sheets on ForumIAS & Vision IAS dashboards.
Key takeaway: The surge in Environment + tricky multi-statement Polity MCQs shaved ≈ 4 marks off otherwise “average” scores.
“CSAT is no longer just qualifying; it’s eliminating.” — Indian Express analysis
CSAT Section | Avg Time/Question | 2024 Accuracy | 2025 Accuracy |
RC (14 passages) | 3 m 20 s | 60 % | 42 % |
Logical Puzzles | 2 m 45 s | 55 % | 40 % |
Quant/DI | 2 m 10 s | 47 % | 52 % |
A ForumIAS poll of 31 k aspirants shows 31 % fear missing CSAT’s 66.67 mark—2 pp above 2023.
Source | Gen | OBC | EWS | SC | ST | Notes |
AptiPlus | 90-95 | 85-90 | 85-90 | 75-80 | 70-75 | Large Kolkata‐base test data |
ForumIAS | 87-92 | 86-91 | 85-90 | 77-82 | 72-77 | 8 k answer uploads |
Drishti IAS | 84-89 | 83-88 | 82-87 | 74-79 | 69-74 | Live Hindi + English panels |
Vajiram & Ravi | 86 ± 4 | — | — | — | — | Webinar; 500 live |
Vision IAS | 79-86 | 78-85 | 78-85 | 70-78 | 65-72 | 15 k result form |
InsightsIAS | 82 | 81 | 78 | 70 | 65 | Vinay Sir vlog |
Next IAS poll | 85.9 | — | — | — | — | 12 k votes |
Plutus IAS | 85-90 | 84-89 | 83-88 | 75-80 | 70-75 | Blog + FB poll |
Twitter @StriveEdgeIAS | 80-85 (Gen poll mode) | — | — | — | — | 2 k votes |
Reddit r/UPSC thread | Crowd median 82-83 | — | — | — | — | 400 comments |
Weighted mean (by historical hit-rate) → 88.1 (Gen).
Category | Very Safe | Likely | Grey Zone | Risk |
General | ≥ 90 | 88-89 | 85-87 | ≤ 84 |
OBC | ≥ 88 | 86-87 | 83-85 | ≤ 82 |
EWS | ≥ 88 | 86-87 | 83-85 | ≤ 82 |
SC | ≥ 80 | 78-79 | 75-77 | ≤ 74 |
ST | ≥ 75 | 73-74 | 70-72 | ≤ 69 |
Milestone | ETA | What to Do |
UPSC Provisional Key | ~Aug 2025 | Cross-verify ambiguous Qs, file objections. |
Final Key & Results | ~Sept 2025 | Confirm GS marks; update preparation. |
Mains Exam | 19 Sept 2025 | Target ~80 days of focused prep. |
Official Cut-Off | Apr 2026 | Validate forecasts, archive for 2026 planning. |
Daily 2-passages rule: 2 RC + 10 quant Qs.
Monthly mock-cum-analysis: Not just marks—log every wrong answer type.
Speed checkpoints: Aim 2m 45s avg on RC; <2m on reasoning.
UPSC 2025 seats (979) break roughly to:
392 Gen, 264 OBC, 98 EWS, 147 SC, 78 ST.
Because qualifiers per category ≈ 3 × seats, the Gen cut-off roughly slices the top 1 200 Gen scores. A ~31 % CSAT fail rate effectively moves that slice ~3 marks left (downward).
# | Question | Answer |
1 | When will UPSC release the official Prelims 2025 cut-off? | The Commission publishes category-wise cut-offs only after the final CSE result—typically 10–11 months post-Prelims (around March–April 2026). |
2 | Why do coaching‐institute predictions differ by 5–10 marks? | Each institute uses its own answer key, sample size, CSAT-pass filter, and statistical model (percentile or 3×-vacancy rule). Small shifts in any of these inputs change the final estimate. |
3 | Does the CSAT score affect my GS cut-off? | Yes—indirectly. If you fail to score 66.67 marks in CSAT, your GS marks aren’t considered at all. A tougher CSAT reduces the pool of candidates, which typically lowers the GS Paper I cut-off. |
4 | How many GS questions can UPSC delete after challenges? | In recent cycles, UPSC has dropped 1–3 questions per paper. Each deletion adds ~0.67 marks to every candidate’s raw GS score. |
5 | What is a “safe score” for General category this year? | Based on nine institute forecasts and crowd data, 90 + in GS Paper I (with CSAT cleared) is considered very safe. Scores 85–89 fall into a grey zone; < 85 is risky. |
6 | Why is the 2025 cut-off expected to be lower than 2024 but higher than 2023? | 2025 saw: (1) a moderately tough GS, (2) a very tough CSAT (which drags cut-offs down), but also (3) fewer vacancies (979 vs 1,056) which push cut-offs up. The net balance lands between the 2023 dip and the 2024 rebound. |
7 | Do reserved-category cut-offs follow a fixed ratio relative to General? | No. They fluctuate independently based on category-wise performance distributions and reservation rules—but historically, OBC/EWS trail General by ~1–3 marks, SC by ~8–10 marks, and ST by ~12–15 marks. |
8 | I scored 87 in GS and cleared CSAT—should I start Mains prep? | Absolutely. Grey-zone candidates (85–89) should begin a “Mains-Lite” schedule—essay outlines, Ethics theory, optional revision—while keeping an eye on consolidated answer-keys. Waiting can cost you 3–4 critical weeks. |
9 | Will fewer vacancies always raise cut-offs? | Not necessarily. Vacancies tighten competition, but cut-offs still depend more on paper difficulty and CSAT pass rates. A brutal paper can offset the vacancy effect, as seen in 2023. |
10 | Is aiming 100 + in GS still relevant after seeing recent cut-offs? | Yes. A 100 + buffer safeguards you against tougher-than-expected papers, question deletions, or scaling anomalies, virtually guaranteeing qualification in most years. |
11 | How accurate are crowd-sourced score calculators? | They’re useful indicators but can be skewed by self-selection (mostly serious aspirants upload scores). Treat them as directional, not definitive. |
12 | What’s the single biggest lesson from Prelims 2025? | Treat CSAT as a core paper, not a formality. Consistent RC and reasoning practice throughout the year is now essential to avoid elimination—even for high scorers in GS. |
UPSC Notification 2025 was released on 22nd January 2025.
UPSC Prelims Question Paper 2025 and Unofficial Prelims Answer Key 2025 are available now.
UPSC Calendar 2026 is released on 15th May, 2025.
The UPSC Vacancy 2025 were released 1129, out of which 979 were for UPSC CSE and remaining 150 are for UPSC IFoS.
UPSC Mains 2025 will be conducted on 22nd August 2025.
UPSC Prelims 2026 will be conducted on 24th May, 2026 & UPSC Mains 2026 will be conducted on 21st August 2026.
The UPSC Selection Process is of 3 stages-Prelims, Mains and Interview.
UPSC Result 2024 is released with latest UPSC Marksheet 2024. Check Now!
UPSC Toppers List 2024 is released now. Shakti Dubey is UPSC AIR 1 2024 Topper.