COP31: Overshoot Narrative and Climate Action Challenges

Why in the News?

COP31, the 31st Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC, began in Antalya, Türkiye. Discussions include accepting a temporary breach of the 1.5°C threshold amid global climate crises.

Key Highlights

• The term 1.5°C overshoot refers to temporarily exceeding the 1.5°C limit and returning to it by 2100.

• Developed nations like the United States and Norway continue approving fossil-fuel projects, including Arctic exploration.

• Reported $137 billion in climate finance for 2024 had an actual value of only $33-45 billion, mostly loans.

• Adaptation finance declined to $26 billion in 2023, far below annual needs of $310-365 billion by 2035.

• UNEP estimates reversing 0.1°C of warming requires removing 220 billion tonnes of CO₂ permanently.

• Developed countries must achieve net-negative emissions within their borders, avoiding reliance on Global South resources.

Know the Basics

• UNFCCC: A 1992 treaty aimed at stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations to prevent dangerous interference with the climate system.

• Paris Agreement: A 2015 global pact under UNFCCC to limit warming to below 2°C, ideally 1.5°C, above pre-industrial levels.

• Carbon Budget: The maximum allowable CO₂ emissions to limit global temperature rise to a specific target.

• Climate Finance: Funds provided to developing countries for mitigation and adaptation under Article 9 of the Paris Agreement.

Detailed Analysis

1.5°C Overshoot Risks Delaying Immediate Action

• The overshoot narrative originates in climate modelling and may rhetorically preserve the 1.5°C target while diverting focus from urgent emissions cuts.

• Scientific uncertainties include whether CO₂ removal can reverse warming proportionately or at the same rate as emissions caused it.

Fossil-Fuel Dependency in Developed Nations

• Fossil fuels constituted 83% of primary energy use in the United States and 73% in the European Union in 2025.

• Countries like the United States, Norway, and Australia continue approving new fossil-fuel projects, undermining global climate goals.

Climate Finance and Adaptation Challenges

• Climate finance reported by developed countries often includes loans, with actual grant-based support far below pledged amounts.

• Adaptation finance is insufficient, penalising developing countries while mechanisms like CBAM disadvantage their industrialisation.

Carbon Removal Feasibility and Equity Issues

• UNEP estimates reversing 0.1°C of warming requires removing CO₂ equivalent to five years of current emissions, with unclear financing and land allocation.

• Developed countries rely on Global South land for carbon removal, threatening food security and livelihoods.

Accountability and Global Carbon Budget Transparency

• No COP decision has quantified the remaining global carbon budget or identified historical overuse by developed countries.

• Developed nations must achieve net-negative emissions within their borders rather than relying on offsets in developing countries.

Significance for India

• India can advocate predictable, grant-based climate finance under Article 9 of the Paris Agreement.

• India's renewable energy targets align with global calls for reducing fossil-fuel dependency.

• UPSC could test this topic under international climate negotiations or carbon budget implications.

• India's role in balancing development needs with climate commitments highlights the equity dimension of global climate policies.

Challenges

• The overshoot narrative risks delaying immediate emissions cuts and accountability by developed nations.

• Climate finance remains inadequate, with developed countries retreating from their obligations under Article 9.1 of the Paris Agreement.

• Carbon removal technologies face scientific uncertainties, high costs, and equity concerns over land use in developing countries.

• Intellectual-property barriers prevent affordable access to climate technologies for developing nations.

Way Forward

• Developed countries must achieve net-negative emissions within their borders and increase grant-based climate finance.

• UNFCCC should quantify the global carbon budget and ensure transparency in historical emissions and overshoot pathways.

• UNEP and COP31 must address equity concerns in carbon removal, including land use and food security in developing nations.

• Countries should eliminate intellectual-property barriers to climate technologies, ensuring fair access for all.